Probability Histograms

See exactly where the current value of any market indicator falls within its historical distribution — instantly know if conditions are extreme, normal, or rare.

What is Probability Histograms?

Probability Histograms takes 17 different market indicators and builds a frequency distribution from their historical values over a configurable lookback period (30, 90, 180, or 365 days). The current value is plotted on top of this distribution so you can immediately see its percentile rank — is the current funding rate in the 95th percentile (extremely high) or the 5th percentile (extremely low)?

This is one of the most powerful context tools in DCT Alpha. Instead of looking at a single number (e.g., “funding rate is 0.03%”) and guessing whether that is high or low, you see the full distribution and know exactly how unusual the current reading is relative to history.

Key Concepts

• Percentile Rank: Where the current value falls in the historical distribution. P95 means 95% of historical values were lower — the current reading is unusually high
• Mean (μ) and Std Dev (σ): The average and spread of the distribution. Values beyond ±2σ from the mean are statistically extreme
• Delta (Δ): The difference between the current value and the historical mean — tells you how far from “normal” conditions are
• Outlier Trimming: For heavily skewed indicators (volume, liquidation size), the top 1% of values are trimmed so the histogram shows meaningful detail instead of being compressed by outliers
• Lookback Period: How much history to include. 30 days shows recent regime, 365 days shows the full picture

Available Indicators (17)

Market

Orderflow

Liquidation

Sentiment

Depth

How to Use Probability Histograms

1. Open Probability Histograms from the sidebar or Terminal workspace
2. Select a symbol (BTC, ETH, SOL, and 17 more)
3. Choose a lookback period — 180 days is a good default for capturing full market cycles
4. Select an exchange (Binance, Bybit, OKX) and period (5m to 1d)
5. Use the group tabs (All, Market, Orderflow, Liquidation, Sentiment, Depth) to focus on specific categories
6. Click the star icon on any histogram to add it to your Favorites tab — favorites persist across sessions
7. The white dashed line shows the current value. The white bar highlights the bin containing the current value

What to Look For

• Extreme percentiles (above 90th or below 10th): The current reading is historically unusual. Extreme funding rates, extreme volume, extreme sentiment — these are the conditions that precede large moves
• Clustering at extremes: If multiple indicators simultaneously show extreme percentiles (e.g., high funding + high OI + extreme taker ratio), the market is in a fragile state
• Mean reversion signals: When a value is at a percentile extreme, there is a statistical tendency for it to revert toward the mean. The further from the mean, the stronger the pull
• Whale vs Retail divergence: When top traders and retail traders disagree (whale_vs_retail delta is extreme), the market is setting up for a resolution — historically, whales are right more often
• Combine with: Smart Alerts for automated extreme percentile notifications, Funding Heatmap for a broader funding view, Liquidation Analytics for context on liquidation extremes

Supported Exchanges

Tips

• Start with the Sentiment group to quickly gauge positioning — if top traders and retail are both max long, be cautious
• Use 365-day lookback for BTC and ETH (more history = better distribution), 90 days for newer altcoins
• The Favorites tab lets you build a custom dashboard of the indicators you care about most — great for your daily routine
• Bid/Ask ratios at 1% depth are the most actionable for short-term trading; 10% depth shows structural support/resistance
• Compare the same indicator across different exchanges — divergences between Binance and OKX funding or OI can signal exchange-specific positioning